New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/octo ber/102907poll-topline.pdf


                  Oct (Aug)
Clinton           29 (25)
Obama             27 (19)
Edwards           20 (26)
Richardson        7  (9)
Biden             5

Cautious note on this poll, the MoE seems to be big.

The poll of 285 likely Republican caucus goers and 306 likely Democratic caucus goers was conducted October 17 to 24. It has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points on the Republican side and 5.5 percentage points on the Democratic side.

Pollster's critism on this poll:
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/new_ia_pol l_tomorrowbut_a_caut.php


The methodology of the previous U. of I. poll was unusual in a few respects: they asked an open-ended vote question (that asks respondents to volunteer their choice without prompting), they sampled from a directory of listed telephone households (rather than from registered voter lists or via random digit dial or voting list) and used a screen that was wider than other polls. More details in my post on their August poll.

We have not included the previous Hawkeye polls in our Iowa chart because of the use of the open-ended question. This is not a statement about the quality of the survey. As I wrote back in August:

This [open-ended question] undoubtedly provides a tougher test of voter commitment, but also produces a much bigger undecided and renders the results incomparable to other Iowa polls.

Of course, we do not know what methodology the Hawkeye poll used this time, but the news advisory does promises that the new results will show how candidate support "has changed since August." So presumably the methodology has been held constant.

More coverage on this poll:
http://thepage.time.com/

Huckabee Surges, Edwards Fades
http://www.time.com/time/politics/articl e/0,8599,1677221,00.html


For Edwards, who has basically been living in Iowa (and who parlayed a second place finish there in 2004 into a spot on the Democratic ticket), the results have to be disconcerting. Unlike Obama and Clinton, he has few other strongholds, and a poor showing in Iowa could place his candidacy in serious jeopardy.
...
Another bad omen for Edwards: only 7.9% of Democrats polled said they are "very likely" to change their minds between now and January 3, when both parties caucus in Iowa.  



Display:


Small sample (none / 0)

I'd like to see polls use at least 500 LV's on a side.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:37:50 AM EST

there's also this (2.00 / 6)

On the bright side is that the people who do support Edwards have a history of showing up when it counts. Nearly 76% of Edwards' poll supporters attended the 2004 caucus, while 58% of Clinton's and 55% of Obama's supporters made the trip four years ago. "If we only look at caucus-goers who are almost certain to attend, we find that Edwards makes up the gap with Obama and Clinton, and moves clearly ahead,"

also, these people forget that Iowa voting is disproporionate and favors support in rural areas.


"Lobbyists Represent 'Real' Americans" - Hillary Clinton
by TarHeel on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:02:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

also this too (2.00 / 1)

from pollster.com

Just a reminder: The methodology of the previous U. of I. poll was unusual in a few respects: they asked an open-ended vote question (that asks respondents to volunteer their choice without prompting), they sampled from a directory of listed telephone households (rather than from registered voter lists or via random digit dial or voting list) and used a screen that was wider than other polls.


"Lobbyists Represent 'Real' Americans" - Hillary Clinton
by TarHeel on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:06:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: there's also this (none / 0)

actually the poll specifically states that the difference between Edwards and the frontrunners will disappear when you take into account that the Edwards supporters are much more likely to caucus.

It is an impartial poll, and this does not change just because you dislike the results.


by alipi on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:37:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: there's also this (none / 0)

What you've quoted here and what you quoted below are all anyone needs to know: Their voter screen was so loose they pulled random names out of the phonebook. That's not those who have caucused before and state they will for sure caucus again this time, that's not any sort of likely caucus goers, that's NOT even registered voters. Anyone that wants to use those numbers to say anything about how those very likely to caucus feel right now would have to be pretty silly.

Even if you want to ignore all that oh so silly likely caucus goer screen stuff, you can't really ignore the pollsters saying that Edwards' has 20%+ margin over Hillary and Obama amongst those who attended the 2004 caucus and that considering just those most likely to caucus (which ends up being those who caucus) that he erases their leads and is "clearly ahead."

This isn't a poll that a Hillary supporter should be trumpeting at all.


by Quinton on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 05:28:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (1.25 / 4)

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/octo ber/102907hawkeye-poll-powerpoint.pdf


After trailing during most of the year, Clinton is now leading with Obama
close behind. Clinton's support stems primarily from her dominance
among female Caucus goers. Obama's support comes disproportionately
from younger voters.
The key for either candidate is to mobilize their bases. This is likely to
be much harder for Obama than for Clinton, since historically Caucus
goers are older. We see clear evidence of the difficulty Obama faces:
only 48% of his supporters say they are "Very Likely" to caucus and only
54% actually did caucus in 2004.
Edwards may still be positioned to challenge both of the other top
Democrats. While now trailing, he remains close among those most likely
to caucus and 75% of his supporters are experienced caucus goers.


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:39:55 AM EST

female (1.50 / 10)

Warning to Obama:

Vicious attacks will certainly turn off women voters. Edwards' share among women voters have dropped to 16% in this poll...


Hillary: We will finally have a president who doesn't mind pulling over and asking for directions. Am I right, ladies?
by areyouready on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:40:39 AM EST

Warning to areyouready. (none / 0)

Your scummy comments that were hidden on MyDD turn off all decent people.


by TomP on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:57:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Warning to areyouready. (none / 0)

Ok, Tom.  Well, those comments were hidden. This is not a scummy comment.  Play fair.


by bookgrl on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:00:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Warning to areyouready. (2.00 / 2)

Her comment was a good point- he's falling in the polls- his negativity could possibly be a big reason for that.  What's scummy is someone hiding a comment that doesn't deserve it and shouldn't be hidden according to the rules.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 11:50:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Warning to areyouready. (2.00 / 1)

frankly, your comments have turned me off as well


by alipi on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:13:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: female (none / 0)

You have a point here.  I agree.


by iamready on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:18:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

every comment you make will be zeroed (1.00 / 1)

you deserve banning


by DrFrankLives on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:24:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: every comment you make will be zeroed (2.00 / 5)

EVERY comment a user you dislike makes will be zeroed, regardless of comment content?

That is shameful abuse of the ratings system, an obvious violation of this site's rules, and a bully mentality that is without equal.   Disgusting.   RATE THE COMMENT, for cripes sakes.  That is how it is supposed to work.  The ratings are not your personal playground to express dislike of a poster.  


by georgep on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:36:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IOWA POLL (none / 0)

Remember the MOE: 5.5%

UN-DECIDED:  9%

This race is a 3 way tie

I donot count Edwards out of this race.

I am an Obama supporter


by BDM on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 11:31:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: IOWA POLL (2.00 / 1)

Also, MOE applies to each person in the poll.  

That means that each candidate could be +/- 5.5%.  Apply that all the way through, and you have a dramatically different race than what some of those spinning here would think.  

I don't know why the Clinton supporters keep ramping up expectations of what Hillary is going to do in Iowa...it does not help her out.


Help build a stronger and more progressive Democratic Party from the grassroots on up
by Peter from WI on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:04:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

areyouready isn't even a Democrat (1.66 / 3)


"Lobbyists Represent 'Real' Americans" - Hillary Clinton
by TarHeel on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: areyouready isn't even a Democrat (none / 0)

Neither are you.


by lonnette33 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 05:00:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

history and practice (none / 0)

show that to determine whether or not a comment is troll worthy, one must look only at the fact that areyouready posted it.

He/she/it is using this cite to spread untruth and discord and does so without scruple or conscience.

I would normally not zero a particular poster and would in fact read the comment.  But this poster has earned it.  In every way.


by DrFrankLives on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 12:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: every comment you make will be zeroed (2.00 / 1)

YOU are the one who should be banned- some of you people think rules are for everyone else except yourselves.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 11:54:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You are close to areyouready (none / 0)

in terms of the complete inanity of your posts, but I have occasionally seen you post something worthwhile, and you don't seem to be an operative spreading misinformation.  Areyouready is.

Until The Powers That Be on this site start to, oh I don;t know, actually read it and exercise some control over it, then the users have to.


by DrFrankLives on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 12:10:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: every comment you make will be zeroed (none / 0)

You should be banned. Hypocrite!


by lonnette33 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 05:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

hypocrite? (none / 0)

You keep using that word.  I do not thing that word means what you think it means.


by DrFrankLives on Tue Oct 30, 2007 at 12:07:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: female (2.00 / 1)

Perhaps Hillary has attracted these female voters in her own right. It has nothing to do with Edwards attacking Hillary. Hell, for a male candidate to go soft on Hillary because she's a woman is sexist.

When Chris Mattews asked whether it was more dangerous for a male candidate to attack a woman he was tagged as sexist. Only small segment of especially fragile women (and men) would be put off my a male candidate attacking a woman in a gender-neutral fashion.


by NewNoir on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 11:51:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: female (none / 0)

I agree.  In another thread, a commenter said he(I think) didn't think of Hillary as male or female, just Hillary, and that is crucial for her to getting the male vote.   Hillary is not going to play the female victim card now by saying John Edwards is picking on her because she is a girl, that would undermine all that she has achieved in male support. She is going to neutralize him another way (so far ignoring him).   As they step up the attacks, I think she is going to play the bad Democrats card against Obama and Edwards for their negativity.  She will probably say that Democrats have a common enemy in the Repubs and Bush, yet her campaign opponents can only find mean things to say about her, while giving the Repubs a pass.


by Kingstongirl on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

you clearly have never heard or read (2.00 / 1)

any stump speech by Edwards if you think he gives Republicans a pass.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:07:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: you clearly have never heard or read (none / 0)

Maybe you should to re-read my comment.  Where did I mention Edwards giving Repubs a pass.  I was merely responding to Newnoir's comment on Edward's attacking Hillary and that I didn't think Hillary would play the female victim card against Edwards, but that she would more likely respond from a position of good Democrat/bad Democrat.  I'm merely speculating on Hillary's strategy, not what Edwards has or has not done.


by Kingstongirl on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:21:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your Flagrantly Sexist Sigline Turns off Males (none / 0)

Once again please change it. I'm tiring of asking you politely. You are on the verge of total cyber warfare with me.

Sexism=bad no matter who is the target.


by Davidsfr on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:15:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your Flagrantly Sexist Sigline Turns off Males (none / 0)

Your objection is inane, as is your threat of "total cyber warfare". What exactly does that entail? And why do you feel that it is appropriate to threaten somebody in order to force your will on them?


by alipi on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:18:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your Flagrantly Sexist Sigline Turns off Males (none / 0)

Areyouready's sigline probably turns off many women as well.

As a guy, though, I could care less. Women still only earn only 70 cents cents for every dollar earned by men.


by NewNoir on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:27:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your Flagrantly Sexist Sigline Turns off Males (none / 0)

I'm not sure what earnings have to do with this, but my point was that being over-sensitive and looking for things to be offended over is silly.


by alipi on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:35:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your Flagrantly Sexist Sigline Turns off Males (none / 0)

You think if it was a sigline insulting women the posters in this forum would tolerate it?

It would be no less silly or meaningless if someone had a sigline playing on some stereotype pertaining to women yet you can bet there would be an uproar about it.


by Davidsfr on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 02:15:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

poor men (none / 0)

I keep forgetting that they are the real victims of sexism. How terrible that jokes are told which keeps reinforcing the idea that they can't get anywhere in a car. God knows it has kept them from being allowed to drive for decades.

ABO... Anybody but Obama. I LIKE the democratic party.

by MollieBradford on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:59:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

But they don't live at 70% the standard of living (none / 0)

Or possess only 70% of the financial assets men do. On these measurements women equal or exceed men and they are much more important.

Also, women age 18-25 earn 106% of what men in the same age group earn; women and men who have worked in the same jobs for ten years or more without extended leave earn virtually the same.

You should care more than you do about comments like areyouready's.


by Davidsfr on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 02:18:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

don't wast your breath. (1.00 / 2)

areyouready is a republican troll who seems to hate all things Democratic. Which pretty much explains the fervent support for Hillary.

If a republican can't win then Hillary is the next best thing. - inside areyouready's head


by JoeCoaster on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:28:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your post is childish as it is silly (2.00 / 1)

If support for Hillary could be explained away as being Republican, then there would have to be a whole heck of a lot of Republican trolls out there.  

The fact is Clinton is winning.  She is winning a tough, fair, well funded fight against worthy challengers.  If she wins she deserves the respect and support of Democrats.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:45:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Your post is childish as it is silly (none / 0)

It's not the Hillary support it's the relentless basing of every other Democrat. But since areyouready is one of your's I guess you don't see that.

The ends justify the means! - Right?


by JoeCoaster on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 05:31:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: female (none / 0)

Areyouready is reiterating the Clinton campaign's bizarre claims that any attacks Obama makes on Clinton undermine him as a candidate because he promised a politics of hope. Basically then, Obama should never criticize Clinton because he promised to be nice.
A primary is supposed to be all about choice. There is a difference between legitimate criticism that an Obama or Edwards might make of Clinton's policies, and illegitimate personal criticisms that Republicans might make of Hillary's character. Do not confuse the two, because I promise you voters certainly would not equate condemning Clinton's Iran vote as character assassination. They've tolerated much worse.
by AC4508 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 08:07:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: female (none / 0)

At the time the campaign was unveiled I recall many of Obama's supporters express apprehension at the theme, claiming that it could well hurt and hamstring him later on.  That is what is happening.  I was impressed with the tone and theme myself, but wondered if it could be maintained throughout for the most part.  That is a virtually impossible task, and it has not been possible for Obama to maintain the high road throughout.  Not at all surprising, given the hustle and bustle a political campaign comes with, but the change has been somewhat severe and large.  It seems like it went from one thing to an entirely different thing virtually overnight, which gave a lot of people a bit of a shock.  

In a way the theme that was struck early on helped Obama get ahead of Edwards, but it has also created an expectation that just could not be maintained.


by georgep on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 08:25:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

I don't know if I am surprised. As the election draws closer, I expect quite a few Edwards supporters switch to Obama once they realize that he chances of winning the primary is much less compared to that of Obama. I don't have data to prove, but mu huch is that since both Obama and Edwards made Clinton their common enemy in their campaign stops and in their rhetoric, I suspect Edwards to fade as election nears and Obama to pick up his support.


by rakk12 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 11:43:28 AM EST

the proof (none / 0)

is that most gore supporters are either obama or edwards.

the iowa poll showed almost no clinton supporters would consider gore, but 20% of edwards or obama supporters in iowa would


"Lobbyists Represent 'Real' Americans" - Hillary Clinton
by TarHeel on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:05:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the proof (none / 0)

But Gore is not running. So if Edwards is not making much of a move nationally, most of his support will shift to Obama.  This is because both of them are bashing Hillary and still retaining their current support at the moment. So if at all their is a shift before the primary it might move from Edwards to Obama. So, Edwards could end up fading before the 2008 caucus the way Dean did in 2004. The biggest beneficiary would be Obama.


by rakk12 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:13:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

wrong again (2.00 / 1)

Edwards was at what, 2 percent in national polls before the 2004 Iowa caucuses?

Iowans do not take their cue from national polls.

So far most of the candidates have gotten a bump in Iowa after they went on tv. Edwards is the only one who has not been on tv. even the second-tier candidates have run many weeks of ads. So more than likely, Edwards will get his bump just at the right time.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:10:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (2.00 / 1)

I'm sure his falling is a mixture of worry about his public financing and also his increased negative attacks of late- but that certainly is not going to stop him from barking at Clinton like a mad dog tomorrow night at the debate- he is going to pull out all the stops- we'll see if it pays off for him.  With these kind of measly numbers, he's obviously going to be more desperate than ever and there will be no telling what will come out of his mouth.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:05:25 PM EST

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

Some of you Edwards supporters are just plain "nasty,"- you love calling people names.  I'm a fool and he's going blow them out of the water- yeah, right.  We'll see Jan. 3rd how brilliant you really are.


NY TIMES ENDORSEMENT: "Mrs. Clinton is more qualified, right now, to be president.... She would be a strong commander in chief."
by reasonwarrior on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:15:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

It's the SCREEN, stupid (1.25 / 4)

A Clinton analogy for you

Why do you even try to talk about polling when you know NOTHING about it.

A Loose screen helps Clinton every time (See national primary polls, ARG) because she is the most familiar candidate.

Are you slow or something?

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/1 0/29/romney_way_ahead_in_iowa_democratic _race_close.html


The bold progressive leader is the most electable candidate. Reclaim the Democratic Party! Support John Edwards.
by Michael 4 Edwards on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 12:41:23 PM EST

Re: It's the SCREEN, stupid (2.00 / 1)

do you know what "analogy" means? where is your "analogy"?

Also, who are you and what do YOU know about polling? Are you an expert? Because I bet you that the people who ran this poll are experts. So maybe you should take it up with them, if you're so insistent on attacking the messenger.


by alipi on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:16:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Do you even know what a screen is? (none / 0)

Just when I thought Clinton supporters here couldn't get any more "low-info" they go and do something even stupider.

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2007/1 0/29/romney_way_ahead_in_iowa_democratic _race_close.html

Haven't you ever heard of "It's the economy, stupid!"

Surprising since you are all stuck in the 90's.

And many outlets release polls for media related reasons, not because they are experts.

Look at the national polls.

Only 10% take part in primaries tops.

But they let in any Dem.

And casual non-voting Dems love HRC.

Do the math.  Or is that going to make your head hurt?


The bold progressive leader is the most electable candidate. Reclaim the Democratic Party! Support John Edwards.
by Michael 4 Edwards on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:41:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

um... actually the poll shows a switch in the positions of Obama and Edwards, respectivley, since September-October.

So, clearly the poll refutes the premise that Edwards has a strong base of support in Iowa, because Obama's newfound support came from former Edwardsians.

What the hell is your last sentence about? I'm sorry that you don't like the data, but for god's sake man, control yourself.


by alipi on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:12:19 PM EST

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

for god's sake man, control yourself

I appreciate your attempt to encourage people to calm down.  I had the same feeling when reading your comment, below:

His whole campaign has been about ATTACKING people!

That's so wrong it really doesn't deserve any comment except "calm down".  But I don't want to be dismissive. The Edwards campaign has been extremely substantive in laying policies and a positive vision. Certainly he has spoken out  against particular policies, particular votes.  That's what political campaigns are about - politics. If you think that's nasty, you'd really, really better brace yourself for what our opponents will be throwing at us in the general election.


Keep it short. DemocraticShortList.com
by Rob in Vermont on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:06:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls are meaningless (2.00 / 1)

Iowa is very hard to poll. If Iowa was a primary than the poll would be somewhat accurate. However, Iowa is a caucas and not a primary. For any candidate to win Iowa, you have to reach that 15% threshold in as many as the 1800 districts as possible throughout Iowa. These districts represent rural, surburban, big cities and smaller cities. The impact of rural areas is really important. They represent 49% of caucas goers. Edwards was able to come from 4% to second place within the week before the 2004 caucas by winning the majority of rural support. So who was these poll respondents? Do they live throughout Iowa's 99 counties? Do they represent the broad support in Iowa that you need to win? This is why I do not trust any Iowa poll regardless who is in the lead. 306 people seem very low for a poll. In 2004, there were around 150,000 caucas goers. Assume it will be the same this year, this poll represents less than 1% of likely caucas goers. The only thing it tells me is that Hillary has the lead in that 1%. The truth is we do not know who will win Iowa.


by harmony94 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 01:22:16 PM EST

I agree with most of what you say (2.00 / 1)

But there were something like 122,000 people attending the Iowa caucuses in 2004, not 150K.


John McCain: 100 years in Iraq "would be fine with me."
by desmoinesdem on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:11:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

I find it bizarre that the storyline here is anything other than Obama's 8-point surge in the polls.


"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman
by Steve M on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 02:07:32 PM EST

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

Exactly.  Obama has come a long way within the past few months.


by Namtrix on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:46:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

because the narrative can not be anyone else doing well. it must be only bad news, as they see it, about a candidate. I suspect you know that and are just asking a rhetorical question. Essentially you are dealing with a bunch of nutcases , sorry been lurking enough and tried to dialogue enough, on this site. CLinton may win, but it wont be because of any of the ramblings you will find by someone like already who doesn't represent other clinton voters much less reality.


by bruh21 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:11:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

This is the third consecutive poll that I have measured with Mr. Edwards on the decline.

My take is this.

Still too early.  But if I was an Edwards supporter, I would be very nervous.  I would and here is why.

This is an absolute must win state for Edwards.  No doubt about it.  More importantly he must beat Clinton or Obama by more than 3% points to be a solid winner.  One or two points will not do.  Why?  Because we are in New Hampshire and the bump will be drastically shortened, if New Hampshire's primary is January 8th.

I also get an inkling that many are still on the fence and should be.

I know Obama has some issues in the LGBT community, but this is not spilling over mainstream.  Nothing locally on television about this at all, so if he can make amends, and he can, then this issue is moot.  But up to the campaign to do this.  This issue seems more internet driven than anything.

Clinton, I see has more hands on deck in Iowa.  Good for her.  Keep her solid base and hopefully she can expand.  I see that many rely on the "second choice", if she can increase and keep on message, I see her expanding the base and winning Iowa.

Edwards.  No media.  What is he doing?  He is hammering Mrs. Clinton at the expense of polling points, not good.  Again, I don't see him going anywhere.

Just my thoughts.


by Raymond Kantorowicz on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:21:29 PM EST

Not early -- its late (none / 0)

Iowa is only 66 days away and you have 3 major holidays in between.  It is time to s!it or get.  The caucuses are not only near, people have been paying attention.  Look at the undecided number.  It is less than 10%.  We have had a ton of debates, forums, etc, and the candidates have been up on tv for a while.  

Edwards does have one interesting stat in his favor.  Over 70% of his supporters caucused in '04.  Compare to about 50% for Clinton and slightly less than 50% for Obama.  So what support he has would be firm (you'd think).  

By the way, I read yesterday that Clinton is hiring over 100 new staffer for Iowa this week.


by dpANDREWS on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 03:42:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (2.00 / 1)

No more name-calling, framecop.  Let's just stick to the substance of the disagreement.

Now to the substance of your argument...

First, I, too, believe it still too early.  The only poll that count is the one that's conducted January 3, 2008.

With that said, you said, "Clinton and Obama have been spending money in Iowa, 160 TIMES MORE THAN EDWARDS over the last few months, just to get a 7-9% lead?"

My rebuttal is that John Edwards has practically lived in Iowa.  He's never stopped campaigning there.  He also has the endorsement of the local SEIU-IA.  He's a very familiar face in Iowa.

A few months ago, Hillary wasn't even expected to do well.  Her advisors wanted to cut their losses and invest in friendly states.  Hillary dug in.  

You have to give her some credit for doing as well as she has.  


by FilbertSF on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:23:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

It's almost as if Edwards invited a homophobe to a concert.


by NewNoir on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 04:24:29 PM EST

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

That's funny.  With the margin of error taken into account, this is a three-way statistical tie.


by TheUnknown285 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 09:34:42 PM EST

Re: New IA poll: Edwards Fading Fast (none / 0)

ssshhhhh- you aren't suppose to mention margin of error- it gets in the way of the spin cycle.


by bruh21 on Mon Oct 29, 2007 at 10:11:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.